Publication:Plan Blue 2006/Future Security Environment (FSE) - Key Issues
5. The following section summarises[1] the Future Security Environment (FSE) over the next two decades. The FSE sets the context for the security challenges Navy will face, the tasks Navy may have to undertake and the environment in which Navy may have to operate.
6. In the next two decades Governments are expected to have to manage tensions associated with increasing populations, diverse ethnicity and culture, urbanisation, industrialisation, globalisation, corruption and crime, and dwindling national resources. These tensions will test the governance of some nations and create the potential for stabilisation and assistance missions. This is likely to be particularly relevant in our region.
7. It is expected that the sovereign state will remain the core unit of the international relations system. The United States (US) will remain the pre-eminent power. Other states, such as China and India, could exert increasing influence over their regions as their economies develop. As a result the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific may see some significant shifts in the 2025 timeframe. The United Nations (UN), regional groupings such as the European Union, and the framework of International Law should continue to influence and bind the behaviour of states. Stresses to the international system will come from rogue, failing or failed states and the continued presence of non-state actors operating outside the accepted international political system. Tensions will inevitably arise between governments and cultural and religious groupings that span state borders. It is anticipated that UN and ad hoc coalitions of like-minded nations will continue to be the usual form of combined force that deals with international security issues. Access to Host Nation support for deployed operations is likely to continue to be unpredictable. The sanctuary, manoeuvre space and freedoms offered by the sea will remain crucial to coalition and ADF operations.
8. Regional tensions will continue to be a factor in security planning over the coming decades. Examples may include China-Taiwan, the Korean peninsula, India-Pakistan and natural resource competition. In particular, resource issues in the South China Sea have the potential to impact strongly on the regional security situation. Many countries in the region remain challenged by internal conflict, the need for stable governance, and the need to develop sustainable economies. The security needs of East Timor and the Solomon Islands remain a particular concern.
9. The rise of terrorism as a coordinated international phenomenon, with a distinct regional aspect, is now a major factor for consideration by security planners. Whether the current level of terrorist threat will still be present in two to three decades is unclear. What history has demonstrated is that the tactics of insurgency and terror will remain part of the security landscape. Issues of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), transnational crime and terrorist activities will continue to influence security in the maritime environment. The current multilateral Proliferation Security Initiative should develop further over the coming years.
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Globalisation - Free Trade and Transnational Crime
10. The basis of world economic growth will continue to be industrialisation, urbanisation and international trade (predominantly seaborne). Asia will be a major hub of economic development and expansion in the coming decades. The Southeast Asian sea-lanes, critical for energy flows between the Middle East and Africa and Asia and the Western Pacific, will remain of crucial strategic importance. Globalisation, based upon the free flow of capital, people, information and trade, will continue to increase the economic interdependence of industrialised and industrialising states. The benefits of increased global mutual dependence and the flow of trade are accompanied by threats such as the potential movement of WMD and the growth of transnational crime. For example, cartels dealing in the illegal trafficking of drugs, weapons, people, money, fishing, and native animals are likely to expand their operations. The proliferation of WMD and advanced weapons technology will remain a major factor in strategic planning in the coming decades. Continued urbanisation along the seaboard will further increase the importance of the littoral regions. Inequalities in global wealth distribution and economic dislocation will remain a source of instability.
Health and Pandemic Outbreaks
11. The increasing interdependencies of the global economy and the free movement of people and trade will affect the ability of governments to counter the spread of pandemic disease. Recent outbreaks of SARS and Avian Influenza are indicators of the potential impact on the region. The Navy may be called upon to assist regional nations with medical care, and may have to provide mobility, logistic support and hospital services in some areas where infrastructure is poor. In cases where Australia is affected, Navy may have to contribute to a cordon sanitaire around the Australian mainland adapting maritime interception skills in support of broader security.
The Environment
12. Environmental issues are of increasing importance in both the international and national spheres. The impacts of environmental pollution, depletion of ocean resources, and the effects of climate change may have serious repercussions for our region, most significantly through the potential for political destabilisation. For example, changes in climate could impact on the sustainability of fish stocks, increased severity and frequency of natural disasters, and lead to rising sea levels thereby adversely impacting the sovereign resources of small nations that depend on the sea for their livelihood.
13. Concurrently, within Australia ongoing political and community focus on environment issues will lead to increasingly stringent environmental compliance responsibilities being placed on those that use the sea. Navy must ensure that capability aspects of maritime activities are sustained, whilst meeting or exceeding Commonwealth legislative standards.
Natural Resource Competition
14. The future security environment will see increased competition between states for natural resources. The delineation of maritime boundaries and baselines to determine Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) and access to sea bed and water column resources will continue to drive tension between states. Access to potable water will become an increasingly critical issue for some states. Economic development and urbanisation is likely to result in an increase in the competition for resources.
Military Technologies
15. The confluence of emerging and existing technologies means that by 2025 it is likely that we will see new forms of weapons, sensors and platforms come into service. Computing power and communications capabilities are continuing to increase at a rapid rate. Open architecture software structures are improving the integration of weapon, sensor and communication systems. Nanotechnology and biotechnology are generating potential military applications. E-weaponry and computer attack will continue to be of concern. Uninhabited autonomous vehicles will grow in prominence and performance. Missile speeds and seeker capabilities are rapidly improving. Extended Range Gun Munitions and advanced land attack missiles are continuing to be developed and the ability of sea based forces to project power into the littoral is being significantly enhanced by these systems. Opportunities exist to leverage these technologies to increase Navy capabilities and provide greater reach in support of joint operations ashore. Threats will also arise as high-end military technologies become increasingly available and economic development places these technologies within the reach of a greater number of nations. High-end technologies will probably become more readily available to non-state actors. In response to the increasing emphasis and importance on the sea for trade, maritime resources, the interdiction of transnational crime and the increasing strategic importance of the littorals, regional navies are growing and modernising. Sophisticated platforms, sensors and weapons systems are being introduced. Submarine technology and high-speed long-range missile technologies are of particular concern. It will be a challenge for the Future Navy to maintain a technological edge.
Implications for the RAN
16. The FSE remains complex without a single dominating theme. It is characterised by a wide range of issues and tensions that will generate tasks across the spectrum of conflict, from potential involvement in coalitions intervening in state versus state wars, through insurgency and peace operations, to securing our maritime resource zones and the delivery of humanitarian aid in the wake of natural disasters. Security issues can be expected to arise with little warning. The tempo of operations is not expected to decrease significantly in the future. Flexible, versatile and rapidly deployable forces will be required. An increasingly globalised world will see Australia's national interests embedded in many parts of the globe. The Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs) to our north and through the Indian Ocean will remain critical to the Asia-Pacific region's economic development. In the coming decades, the Asia-Pacific region will be a centre of global economic and military expansion and modernisation. The Future Navy, as part of a joint or coalition Task Force, must be ready to respond and operate throughout our region and further afield, wherever Australia's interests lie. It must also be ready to act independently in some limited regional contingencies.
17. The requirement to exert influence on and from the sea in the littorals creates a priority for speed, responsiveness and mobility. Amphibious operations require synchronised and integrated forces. Collective training and support of amphibious operations will play an increasingly important role in the generation and projection of maritime power in the littoral.
18. The ability to operate with US forces will remain crucial to the RAN delivering effective future options to Government. The RAN will also need to be prepared to operate as an element of UN forces and ad hoc coalitions.
19. The availability of Forward Operating Bases (FOB) should not be assumed and the RAN needs to be prepared to operate at long distances from a shore support base for extended periods of time. Task Groups (TG) must have the warfighting and support capabilities required to achieve the mission embedded within them, as these capabilities may not be available from ashore.
20. Navy undertakes to be a responsible environmental steward, through implementation of management strategies, incident reporting and awareness training, as required by the Defence Environmental Policy. Key management issues including maritime pollution convention (MARPOL) compliance, impacts of underwater sound on marine life, translocation of marine pests and environmentally responsible disposal of obsolete vessels will remain the subject of public and government focus. Navy will endeavour to remain at the forefront of implementation of appropriate management strategies for these issues.
21. The sustainable management of RAN activities will avoid significant impact on commercial, residential and recreational use of the marine environment, and consequently assist in ensuring long term access to key training areas and bases.
22. Technology will provide the Future Navy with opportunities to change the way we fight, giving greater speed, precision, lethality and reach throughout the littoral. It will also present opportunities to potential adversaries. The proliferation of technology carries risks for Navy and we should be prepared to design our major systems to ensure maximum survivability and offensive effectiveness in this environment. Layered defence for major systems will be a key requirement.
23. To complete the context for the future environment, the following section summarises the key issues from the envisaged Future Organisational Environment.
Footnotes
- ↑ A more detailed and classified assessment of the FSE is in Annex A of the FMOC.
